Will The Upcoming Presidential Election Impact Giving?

In each presidential election cycle, fundraisers and heads of nonprofits get concerned about the potential impact the election will have on the support of their organization. They wonder, “Will donors decrease their giving to my organization because of their support of a political candidate, party or PAC?”

It’s a valid concern considering the aggressive fundraising efforts of candidates and political parties during an election cycle. But it’s a concern that doesn’t play out in reality.

First, let’s look at the data.

In two Dunham+Company studies conducted back in 2016 and again in 2020, we asked whether giving to political parties, candidates or PACs would reduce how much donors give elsewhere. In both studies, donors made it clear that this is highly unlikely.

For example, in 2016 this question scored a mean of just 1.9 on a scale of 1-5, with 1 being “Completely Disagree” and 5 being “Completely Agree”. So a score of 1.9 means donors are very unlikely to reduce their giving to organizations they normally support because of giving to a candidate, party or PAC.

In 2020 we asked the same question and in this survey the question scored a mean of 2.3. So again, donors say it’s pretty unlikely they would reduce their giving.

Digging a bit deeper into the data from both studies it’s needs to be noted that the Boomer cohort of donors made it clear that political giving wouldn’t negatively impact giving elsewhere as their mean in 2016 was only 1.8 and in 2020 just 1.9. Knowing this is the most important group of donors as their household giving is higher than Gen X and Millennials, this finding is very important.

Finally, in those same studies we also asked donors whether they would be giving less in the coming year and if so why. One possible response for giving less was, “The upcoming presidential election.” In 2016, 0%(not a typo) of donors cited that as a reason they would give less in the coming year. And in 2020 just 2% said this would be the reason. It’s clear that presidential elections are not a reason donors give less.

Second, let’s look at history.

As I look back at my experience through many presidential campaigns there has never been an instance where the organizations I served saw a drop in income as a result of the elections. My hunch is that political giving is a one-off exercise for those who donate to political campaigns and thus not replacing their philanthropic support of the charities they normally support.

In addition, based on a study by lendingtree, the older the demographic the less likely they are to support political campaigns (just 14% of Boomers compared to 43% of Gen Z and 33% of Millennials). Knowing that the most important giving demographic is the Boomer generation, it continues to make sense that the election cycle shouldn’t negatively impact the ongoing support of charitable institutions.

So, will the upcoming presidential election cause donors to give less to your organization? Based on the data and history, I think we can confidently say it’s extremely unlikely.

With this in mind, there is one important thing to note, however. It is imperative to understand that every presidential election can become a distraction to your donors as the volume of communication intensifies the closer you get to election day. So it’s vital to ensure that you are staying in front of your donors throughout the election cycle, continuing to give them reason to support you.

The point being, your donors may not give less to you because of their support of a candidate, party or PAC, but they could decrease giving if you’re not staying in front of them with the continued rationale as to why their support matters. So keep up the cadence of communication throughout the fall and make sure your case for support is as strong as ever.